Important dates:
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 01 | 12752 | 56221 | 465 | 115 | 371 |
| Sep 02 | 12820 | 56337 | 466 | 115 | 439 |
| Sep 03 | 12879 | 56400 | 467 | 115 | 456 |
| Sep 04 | 12926 | 56534 | 470 | 115 | 451 |
| Sep 05 | 12972 | 56627 | 470 | 115 | 446 |
| Sep 06 | 12999 | 56682 | 470 | 115 | 423 |
| Sep 07 | 13000 | 56714 | 470 | 115 | 383 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 4.9 | 10.7% | 41 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 7.0 | 14.4% | 55 | 0.4% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 7.4 | 16.4% | 63 | 0.3% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 7.3 | 19.3% | 74 | 0.54% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 5.1 | 11.2% | 43 | 0.41% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 5.1 | 12.3% | 47 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 3.6 | 8.9% | 34 | 0.3% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.7 | 6.8% | 26 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 1 | 43.1 | 100% | 383 | 0.37% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 01 | 8280 | 32940 | 345 | 100 | 256 |
| Sep 02 | 8328 | 33016 | 346 | 100 | 284 |
| Sep 03 | 8381 | 33078 | 348 | 101 | 323 |
| Sep 04 | 8415 | 33151 | 349 | 102 | 327 |
| Sep 05 | 8449 | 33224 | 350 | 102 | 332 |
| Sep 06 | 8449 | 33260 | 351 | 102 | 316 |
| Sep 07 | 8461 | 33281 | 351 | 102 | 268 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.6 | 9% | 24 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 6.3 | 21.3% | 57 | 0.68% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 4.1 | 14.2% | 38 | 0.53% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 6.6 | 20.5% | 55 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 3.3 | 11.2% | 30 | 0.39% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 4.0 | 10.8% | 29 | 0.3% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.1 | 6.3% | 17 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.1 | 6.7% | 18 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 12 | 31.1 | 100% | 268 | 0.41% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 01 | 6271 | 22048 | 316 | 85 | 155 |
| Sep 02 | 6297 | 22074 | 316 | 85 | 167 |
| Sep 03 | 6346 | 22104 | 317 | 85 | 206 |
| Sep 04 | 6374 | 22167 | 317 | 85 | 211 |
| Sep 05 | 6402 | 22209 | 317 | 85 | 222 |
| Sep 06 | 6419 | 22234 | 318 | 85 | 218 |
| Sep 07 | 6425 | 22245 | 319 | 85 | 212 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.3 | 8% | 17 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 3.1 | 11.3% | 24 | 0.44% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 2.4 | 9.4% | 20 | 0.44% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 4.0 | 16.5% | 35 | 0.64% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 3.1 | 14.6% | 31 | 0.62% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 4.0 | 16% | 34 | 0.5% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.6 | 14.2% | 30 | 0.47% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.3 | 9.9% | 21 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 6 | 24.9 | 100% | 212 | 0.47% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 01 | 13798 | 64067 | 519 | 93 | 459 |
| Sep 02 | 13832 | 64203 | 520 | 93 | 476 |
| Sep 03 | 13881 | 64319 | 524 | 93 | 456 |
| Sep 04 | 13915 | 64436 | 527 | 93 | 422 |
| Sep 05 | 13978 | 64505 | 528 | 93 | 427 |
| Sep 06 | 14005 | 64555 | 530 | 94 | 386 |
| Sep 07 | 14010 | 64595 | 533 | 94 | 359 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 3.7 | 8.1% | 29 | 0.25% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 7.4 | 17.3% | 62 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 6.9 | 19.2% | 69 | 0.32% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 7.4 | 17.8% | 64 | 0.47% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 4.7 | 12% | 43 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 4.1 | 9.7% | 35 | 0.25% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.6 | 7% | 25 | 0.18% |
| 70+ | 1 | 3.6 | 8.9% | 32 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 5 | 40.4 | 100% | 359 | 0.3% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 01 | 49121 | 384804 | 1733 | 322 | 1054 |
| Sep 02 | 49299 | 385481 | 1736 | 322 | 1157 |
| Sep 03 | 49417 | 385961 | 1738 | 324 | 1205 |
| Sep 04 | 49550 | 386917 | 1746 | 324 | 1198 |
| Sep 05 | 49610 | 387484 | 1746 | 324 | 1143 |
| Sep 06 | 49723 | 387878 | 1749 | 324 | 1066 |
| Sep 07 | 49804 | 388088 | 1759 | 324 | 985 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 17 | 17.3 | 14.8% | 146 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 13.1 | 11.9% | 117 | 0.16% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 21.9 | 19.5% | 192 | 0.18% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 21.4 | 19.7% | 194 | 0.25% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 12.1 | 10.9% | 107 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 10.1 | 9.7% | 96 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 8.0 | 7.5% | 74 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 5 | 6.4 | 6% | 59 | 0.12% |
| All ages | 81 | 110.4 | 100% | 985 | 0.18% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 01 | 663132 | 3161730 | 35847 | 7627 | 16421 |
| Sep 02 | 665473 | 3167364 | 35953 | 7638 | 17984 |
| Sep 03 | 667455 | 3172374 | 36067 | 7652 | 17784 |
| Sep 04 | 669390 | 3177450 | 36190 | 7664 | 18049 |
| Sep 05 | 670525 | 3181661 | 36235 | 7664 | 17162 |
| Sep 06 | 671463 | 3184735 | 36284 | 7666 | 15796 |
| Sep 07 | 672272 | 3186781 | 36359 | 7667 | 14668 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 83 | 182.7 | 11.5% | 1693 | 0.26% |
| 10-19 | 123 | 242.3 | 15% | 2202 | 0.29% |
| 20-29 | 146 | 262.6 | 16.5% | 2421 | 0.32% |
| 30-39 | 134 | 255.4 | 16.4% | 2406 | 0.32% |
| 40-49 | 103 | 197.0 | 12.4% | 1819 | 0.26% |
| 50-59 | 84 | 177.1 | 11.3% | 1659 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 74 | 137.4 | 8.9% | 1308 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 62 | 121.6 | 7.9% | 1160 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 809 | 1576.1 | 100% | 14668 | 0.25% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.1 | 52.2 | 46.3 | 43.1 | 37.9 | 34.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62.3 | 31.1 | 22.7 | 35.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 24.9 | 15.3 | 41.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.5 | 55 | 55 | 40.4 | 49.3 | 29.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.1 | 27 | 29.7 | 110.4 | 108 | 15.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.8 | 41.9 | 48.9 | 1576.1 | 1587.6 | 25.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-09-29 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7155"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges